October 23, 2009

HR experts see brighter skies for coming quarter

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Of all the fiscal quarters in the year, the fourth has got to be the hardest to predict and analyze. Since the holiday season is such a crucial sales time for most businesses, any spike in hiring or increased sales can be written off as a temporary seasonal bump that will dissolve in the next quarter. Still the latest Labor Market Outlook survey from the Society of Human Resources Management is showing that the fourth quarter of 2009 will be, well, not great, but at least much better than last year's Q4.

Gleaning data from more than 400 HR professionals surveyed across the country, the full LMO report is chock full of details about the changing mood in HR, which is generally improving; nearly 80 percent of respondents, for instance, said they would either increase or keep staff levels the same through the end of the year. This is especially good news considering that the previous three months saw the same HR departments cutting staff by 30 percent.

But what really stood out to me was the section on the optimism about growth by various regions. In the 13-state Western region, the survey found, 26 percent of the HR pros said they felt "optimistic" about job growth in Q4 '09 and 14 percent said they were "very optimistic." This combined 40 percent positive response was higher than in any region of the country--which says a lot, considering the job-blighted states of California and Arizona were included in the region.

The SHRM data didn't go into details about why the mood is brightening somewhat in the Northwest, so I talked with Mary Fairchild, president of the Staffing Management Association's Seattle chapter, about her views on local job growth in the next few months.

While Fairchild had not yet seen the SHRM report, she did say that "there are some indicators that things are looking up," in the Seattle area. "I would not consider it a trend yet, but my feeling is that there is a higher volume of positions out there these days."

Many local companies she has spoken with, Fairchild says, "are bringing more of the pieces together and building staff levels again with more contract positions. Some of them have been in hurry-up-and-wait mode, where's there's a flurry of activity and then everything stalls. But it seems like there are more positions available."

Health care, Fairchild said, continues to be a strong sector for job growth, as does technology. "Microsoft has had some big layoffs, but they're still there with new positions," she said, pointing to the company's strong quarterly returns from today. "I think what's next [to rebound] will be accounting and finance," she said. Those sectors that still lagging include administration, human resources and marketing.

As always this time of year, there will be a lull in hiring from late November through mid-December, Fairchild cautioned. "But just when you think things are looking bad, they can turn around quickly," she added.

Randy Woods writes about job-search tools, networking techniques and other tips to help you land your dream job.

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