February 5, 2010

Four signs our recovery may not be entirely 'jobless'

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It's been a long road to stability during this alleged "jobless recovery." The path over the last two years has been filled with small signs of hope for an increase in hiring, usually followed by an depressing report about more job losses. This week, however, there has been such a string of positive signs that employers are considering expanding their rosters, it has felt like staring at a beacon that can't be ignored.

While this beacon of hope may dim at any moment, or lure us off another cliff, it's heartening to see that many employers and government officials are beginning to take action to reduce this nation's crippling jobless figures. Maybe its just a lingering warmth I feel following my trip to Miami a few days ago, but I have to say that I'm feeling pretty encouraged by the latest economic indicators. Here's a quick rundown of the good news this week:

Feb.1 - Online job demand rises. A survey by the business research firm The Conference Board found that the number of vacancies advertised online in January rose sharply to more than 4 million openings, representing a rise of 382,000 jobs--more than the increases over the previous two months combined. "These increases have brought us back near the labor demand levels that existed in November 2008, just prior to the huge losses resulting from the financial turmoil," said Gad Levanon, The Conference Board's associate director of macroeconomic research. "This is very good news since these seasonally adjusted increases come in two months when we normally see employers cut back on advertising for workers."

Feb, 3 - Indeed.com's job postings on the rise. In its monthly Industry Employment Trends report, the Indeed.com search engine found that job listings actually increased for the first time since the trends report began last year. Six of the 12 major industries tracked in the report showed growth, led by the hospitality sector (with a 45 percent increase compared to January 2009) and education (22 percent). Other industries on the plus side for job postings include retail (16 percent), real estate (14 percent), manufacturing (4 percent) and--you could've knocked me over with a feather with this last one--media and newspapers (4 percent)

Feb. 5 - Unemployment falls unexpectedly. Just days after the Obama Administration had predicted little improvement in the nation's unemployment rate (9.8 percent was their best guess by the end of the year), the latest Labor Department figures showed a dip from 10 percent in December 2009 to 9.7 percent in January 2010--the first decline in jobless numbers in seven months. According to the seasonally adjusted survey, 541,000 more Americans had jobs last month (although the total jobs that have disappeared since the recession began is still a shocking 8.4 million).

Feb. 5 - February looks even better than January. According to a monthly survey of more than 1,000 manufacturing and service-sector firms, conducted by The Society for Human Resource Management, February is expected to be the fourth month in a row to show a net increase in hiring compared to the previous year. Recruiting for top-level talent will also become more of a challenge, the report found, possibly because more workers are finding jobs faster than they were last year.

"All of these trends are indications that the job market is starting to recover," said John A. Challenger, CEO of outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "We may not start to see steady job gains until the second half of the year, as employers first meet increased labor demands by turning part-timers into to full-time workers and rounding out their staffs with temporary workers. Unfortunately, the hiring process is much slower than the firing process. So, job seekers must be patient, persistent and creative when it comes to their searches."

Will this trend continue next week? Well, that's when the U.S. Senate begins debate over President Obama's plan to provide tax breaks for companies who hire more staff. Let's keep this streak going, folks.

Randy Woods writes about job-search tools, networking techniques and other tips to help you land your dream job.

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