December 5, 2010

Confidence still rising for 2011 job growth

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All relationships -- even the ones that seem destined for long-term commitment -- have their bumpy days, where everything seems to fall apart. Friday was one of those days for the on-again/off-again romance between private-sector employers and the nation's workforce.

The job-search world is still coming to grips with the Labor Department's surprisingly disappointing figures on job creation for November. Though 39,000 new jobs were created in the private sector, the number was far below the 150,000 new jobs that economists had expected and fewer still than the 172,000 new jobs recorded in the October report. The result: An ugly increase in unemployment from 9.6 to 9.8 percent.

However, it's important to note that job creation is based on a hard-to-measure statistic called confidence, which can be interpreted only through the collective analysis of many other long-range business reports. For instance, while job growth took a hit last month, the manufacturing sector wobbled only slightly but still showed growth for the 16th straight month, consumer spending showed signs of recovery during the holiday season and many companies expect hiring will increase in the first six months of 2011, compared to the previous six months.

Closer to home, the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce released the results of a survey last month of nearly 1,200 businesses in King County about their hiring expectations for 2011. This "State of the Union" report is being called "the first comprehensive snapshot" of local economic activity for 2011, the chamber says, asking businesses about what they see as the challenges in the economy, the main opportunities for growth and what steps they are taking to prosper.

According to the report, the top performing job sectors that hired, added new products or increased contracts in 2009 were IT/gaming, international trade, professional services and life sciences. Here are some other highlights from report about next year's hiring prospects:

• 56 percent of respondents said they expect that business will be better next year; only 7 percent think they will be worse off.
• 41 percent of those surveyed, mostly from mid-sized companies, said they expect to add hires in 2011.
• The industry sectors that are most optimistic about their business prospects for next year are human services, international trade, food/beverage/retail, and IT/gaming

On the flip side, the sectors that survey respondents considered the least optimistic for 2011 in the Seattle area included some of the usual suspects -- government, real estate/construction -- as well as a few surprises, such as energy/environment and aerospace/manufacturing. Although "green job creation" is on everyone's lips these days, it appears that few actual jobs are expected to materialize in the next 12 months.

"The survey confirms what we've been seeing anecdotally," sums up Seattle Chamber chair Maud Daudon, CEO of Seattle-Northwest Securities. "We are beginning to emerge from the economic doldrums, but we are not out of the woods yet."

Randy Woods writes about job-search tools, networking techniques and other tips to help you land your dream job.

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economy, hiring, IT, market trends, unemployment