October 11, 2011

Flat holiday hiring is reason for optimism

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A few years ago, in the early days of the Great Recession, I attended an economic forecast symposium and heard an economist use a phrase that still resonates with me: "As far as markets are concerned, 'flat' is the new 'up.'"

Indeed, during the dark post-financial-meltdown months of 2009, any economic indicator that managed to remain steady while everything else was cratering was the best news we could hope for. The same is true today for job seekers with fears of a double-dip recession on the horizon. As long as we can maintain at least the rate of job growth we had last year, perhaps we can make some progress towards a recovery.

With Columbus Day in the rear-view mirror, we have now entered the unofficial start of the holiday hiring season, when stores across the region start bulking up staff for the coming shopping spree. According to a recent holiday-hiring forecast from the Washington State Employment Security Department (ESD), retailers across the state are expected to add about 13,000 full-time seasonal jobs from October to December. This is a decent figure, but it's a noticeable drop from the 14,700 workers who were hired for the 2010 season.

Not surprisingly, most of the new hires in the state, ESD says, should come from the "big box" merchandisers, which are looking to fill about 7,000 positions this season, with another 3,500 coming from other retail-trade categories. These combined numbers are actually a bit higher than last year's holiday hiring, but clothing stores are expected to hire only around 3,300 workers, which is a plunge of about 1,000 from the 2010 figures.

Most of the Western Washington cities covered in the ESD report are predicted to have slightly fewer hires this year than they did in 2010, including Bellingham, Bremerton and Mount Vernon. Retailers in the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett sector are expected to hire roughly 8,500 holiday workers this season, compared to just over 9,000 last year.

Many media outlets have reported these figures as yet another negative sign of our region's continuing economic malaise. But the picture looks a bit different when viewed with a healthy dose of perspective.

At the end of last month, for instance, Bloomberg reported that its consumer confidence index fell to minus-53, the second-lowest figure it has ever recorded. Yet, many of the big-name stores, such as Macy's, Kohl's, J.C. Penney and Target have already announced that they are planning nationwide increases in hiring of between 2 percent and 5 percent this year compared to 2010. Other large chains, such as Nordstrom, Wal-Mart and Sears have policies of not commenting on their holiday hiring plans, so they're numbers aren't even included. These big Puget Sound-area employers may well be another positive influence on the number of seasonal hires over the next few months.

Also, the 14,700 reported seasonal jobs from last year ended up being 17 percent higher than want ESD had predicted before that season began. Who's to say that same thing won't happen in 2011?

A deeper look at the ESD data finds a few more bright spots. In keeping with the "flat is the new up" philosophy, Tacoma stores are predicting that they'll hire approximately 1,265 seasonal workers this year, which is virtually identical to the 2010 total. Meanwhile, Olympia is anticipating a mini-surge in jobs with 671 new hires in 2011 (versus 413 in 2010), thanks to a few new retailers opening in that area. Out east, Spokane retailers are also reporting nearly 1,300 new positions, a 40 percent spike over the 2010 figure.

Of course, it must be noted that seasonal jobs during the holidays are merely an indicator of quarterly economic activity, not a long-term predictor of hiring trends. ESD Commissioner Paul Trause said that holiday jobs "often can be a gateway back into the workforce for the unemployed." However, the reality is that the vast majority of seasonal workers will find themselves back pounding the pavement in January, after the post-holiday returns are made and end-of-year inventory is tallied.

For most people out of work today, the holiday season is a temporary respite from their full-time job search to help pay some bills. From what we've seen in the ESD study, it would seem that there's an even chance that hiring activity will at least be similar to what occurred in 2010.

It's flat, but it's still a reason keep your spirits up.

Randy Woods writes about job-search tools, networking techniques and other tips to help you land your dream job.

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part-time work, retail, seasonal hiring